Friday's Immigration Plan Is the Real October 28: What Ottawa's Levels Plan Means for the Buyer Pool in Peel, Muskoka and Parry Sound
Prepared Thursday, October 29, 2026. Ottawa's 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan has not yet been announced. This article explains what to watch for, not the outcome.
Wednesday was about rates. The next signal is about people.
Wednesday’s Bank of Canada decision grabbed attention: the Bank raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.50%. But your housing decisions are shaped by more than borrowing costs. They also depend on how many people are looking for homes, where they want to live and what they can afford.
That makes Ottawa’s upcoming immigration plan an important signal for the buyer pool in Peel, Muskoka and Parry Sound.
The government is expected to table its 2027–2029 plan around the statutory November 1 deadline. November 1 falls on a Sunday this year, and federal law allows for a later tabling date if Parliament is not sitting. So think of the deadline as an important marker, not a promise that the announcement will arrive on a particular day.
The policy at stake is clear. Ottawa has committed to reducing non-permanent residents (NPRs) to below 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027. Statistics Canada’s July 2026 estimate put the share at about 6.7%, down from 7.2% in 2024. The new plan could clarify or change provisional targets for 2027 and 2028, set permanent-resident targets for 2029 and adjust NPR pathways. The actual figures are what matter.
AP Bains’ local perspective reaches from Peel communities to cottage-country markets.
Why the buyer pool matters to you
For years, newcomer households have contributed to housing demand in Peel, including Brampton, Mississauga and Caledon. A change in the pace of population growth could affect how quickly homes are absorbed, how much competition buyers face and how landlords assess rental demand.
Economists are debating the size and timing of that effect. National Bank senior economist Daren King has warned that if the NPR share keeps moving toward the government’s target, population growth could slow further. He points to 2027 and 2028 as years to watch, with Ontario’s population potentially flatlining and British Columbia’s contracting.
That is a forecast scenario, not a guaranteed result. And it does not mean every home, neighbourhood or property type will respond the same way.
The wider market is already adjusting. CREA reported that September national sales were down 7.7% year over year, while its national composite benchmark was down 3.4%. In the National Bank analysis reported by the Financial Post, Ontario and B.C. sales were about 22% below their 10-year averages. Those numbers describe the broader backdrop, not the value of your particular home.
You can read the National Bank housing analysis reported by the Financial Post, the latest CREA statistics and the government’s population commitments for more detail.
A slower market can create room to make a thoughtful move
A smaller or slower-growing buyer pool can bring challenges, especially if you are selling. But it can also bring practical advantages if you are buying: less competition for some properties, more time to compare options and a better chance to negotiate.
In Peel, September market reporting showed about 4.9 months of inventory. That is a useful sign of choice and negotiating conditions, not a guarantee of a discount on every listing. Your opportunity depends on the property, its condition, location and current comparable sales.
Inventory can help you understand the market context. Current comparable sales help you judge an individual property.
Cottage-country markets have their own rhythms. Through September, reported waterfront inventory stood at 13.2 months in Muskoka and 11.7 months in Parry Sound. Those figures suggest buyers may have time to assess properties carefully, but the markets are not identical. Parry Sound’s waterfront sales and median price were up year over year in the same reporting, while Muskoka’s median was slightly higher. Property condition, access, seasonality and carrying costs still matter.
For sellers, this remains a good market to make a well-prepared move. It is also a market where buyers have choices. That makes realistic pricing and thoughtful presentation especially important. A home with strong preparation, a clear price strategy and professional marketing can still reach serious buyers.
The Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision is another part of your planning. Its October Monetary Policy Report projects inflation averaging around 3% through 2027 before returning to target around mid-2028. That is one reason not to build a purchase or sale plan around a single forecast about when rates might fall. You can review the Bank’s decision and report. For the rate snapshot, the next scheduled decision is December 9, 2026.
What the regional indicators can, and can’t, tell you
The plan's details matter — these are the four signals to check when it lands.
A few numbers can help you ask better questions, but they need careful interpretation.
- Peel and the GTHA: CMHC reports that Ontario mortgage arrears were 0.32% in Q2 2026 and Toronto CMA arrears were 0.33%. A separate GTHA indicator showed the share of uninsured investor mortgage balances with loan-to-value ratios above 80% rising from 1.6% in Q1 2024 to 9.2% in Q1 2026. That describes a specific mortgage-investor group; it is not a measure of equity for every homeowner.
- Muskoka and Parry Sound: High waterfront inventory can mean more choice and longer selling timelines. Local arrears data at the district level was not available in the sources reviewed, so national or Toronto figures should not be presented as local rates.
- Canada overall: The infographic’s rounded 0.28% arrears figure is a national benchmark, not a Peel, Muskoka or Parry Sound statistic.
The point is not to make a decision from one number. It is to understand your own budget, property and timing, and then compare them with the right local evidence.
Practical steps you can take now
If you’re buying, set your comfort zone first. Stress-test the monthly payment, taxes, insurance, utilities and maintenance at today’s rates. If the numbers work, you can consider acting while competition is more measured instead of relying on a forecast that everyone will return to the market at once. Start with the buyer search and AP Bains’ buying information.
If you’re selling, price from current comparables. Ask which recent sales genuinely compete with your home. Strong preparation and state-of-the-art marketing help your property stand out, but the price still needs to meet today’s buyer expectations. Get started with the seller valuation or selling advice.
If you’re investing, use realistic rents. Test your plan against current achievable rent, vacancy assumptions, repairs, financing and carrying costs. Treat possible rent increases or a fast rebound as upside, not as the only way the investment works.
What to watch for in the plan
When Ottawa releases the 2027–2029 plan, check:
- The new permanent-resident admission targets for 2029.
- Whether provisional 2027 and 2028 targets change.
- Whether NPR pathways or temporary-resident targets are adjusted.
- How the government explains the timing and progress toward its below-5% NPR goal by the end of 2027.
The plan will matter, but it will not decide your next move for you. Your financing, preferred location, property condition and personal timing remain within your control. Whether you are considering a Brampton townhome, a Mississauga family home or a waterfront property, the ultimate advantage comes from knowing your numbers and negotiating with local insight.
The market remains a good market for prepared buyers and sellers. A clear plan helps you make the most of it.
Let’s work through your next step
Whether you’re buying, selling or weighing both, I’m here to help you assess the local market and handle the details with care. Call 416-817-8110, email info@apbains.com or visit www.apbains.com. I look forward to working with you.
AP Bains | CENTURY 21 Green Realty Inc. Brokerage