One in Four GTA Sales Is Now a Loss, and CMHC Says the Pressure Runs Through 2027: A Seller's Playbook for Peel, Muskoka and Parry Sound
The headline is striking. But it needs context before you use it to make a decision about your home.
A recent study found that 24.8% of GTA resales closed below the seller’s previous purchase price. That is not one in four GTA homeowners. It is one in four properties that resold during a specific 12-month study period. The losses were concentrated among people who bought near the 2021–22 peak and sold again within a few years, especially condo owners.
The useful takeaway is not “don’t sell.” It’s “know your numbers, price for today’s market and plan your next move.” Most sellers in the study sold above their previous purchase price, and prepared sellers are better positioned in any market: October’s seasonally adjusted sales and benchmark price both edged up from September, while active listings were down year-over-year.
What the “one in four” figure really measures
Valery Real Estate analyzed 27,271 GTA resales using TRREB MLS data. The study covered sales that closed from October 25, 2025, to October 24, 2026, and compared each sale price with the property’s previous purchase price.
The analysis found:
- 24.8% of resales sold below the previous purchase price.
- Among those resales, the median loss was 11%.
- After including land transfer taxes and selling costs, about 32% were estimated to have sold below total cost.
- In the City of Toronto, 28% sold below the previous purchase price, rising to 38% after transaction costs.
- 38% of condos sold below their previous purchase price, compared with 20% of detached homes.
That means roughly three in four resales sold above the previous purchase price. And, using the study’s transaction-cost assumptions, about two in three remained above that level after costs.
The sharpest contrast was among homes bought in 2021 or 2022 and resold during the study period. 80% sold below the previous purchase price, rising to 92% after costs. Among condos bought in those years, 87% sold at a loss.
These are aggregate figures about properties that resold, not a measure of every homeowner’s equity or likely sale result. They don’t account for every owner’s upgrades, mortgage balance, purchase costs, or reasons for selling. The study also found that the median GTA resale gained 29% over its previous purchase price after a median 8.5 years of ownership. Your own home’s value depends on its location, condition, property type and recent comparable sales.
Valery’s findings were reported by Real Estate Magazine and De La Baie. Read the Valery Real Estate resale analysis for its methodology.
CMHC’s forecast is context, not a countdown
In its Fall 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report, CMHC reported that Ontario’s mortgage arrears rate reached 0.32% in Q2 2026. The agency expects arrears pressure to continue rising through mid-2027, particularly in the GTHA and Southwestern Ontario.
CMHC also said Canada is not facing a broad mortgage crisis. It noted that financial pressure can appear first in other forms of household debt, before mortgage arrears. For more, see CMHC’s report release.
This is relevant market context, but it does not tell you what your home will sell for or what decision you should make. It’s a reason to prepare early, understand your costs and get a clear picture of your options.
Find the plan that fits your situation
If you bought before 2020 and have built equity, you’re not in the peak-era group described in the study. Your main challenge may be resisting the urge to price from the 2022 high-water mark. Look at recent sales for homes like yours. A well-priced home can attract serious buyers without waiting for a past market peak to return.
If you bought in 2021 or 2022 and need to sell soon, start with the numbers, not the listing date. Estimate your likely sale price, mortgage balance, any payout penalty and selling costs. If you may face a shortfall, contact your lender and a mortgage professional before you list. Ask about the options available for your mortgage and circumstances. Knowing your likely net proceeds gives you a clearer basis for deciding what comes next.
If you’re moving up in Peel, look at both sides of the move together. If your current home’s value has changed, the home you hope to buy may also be priced differently than it was at the peak. Compare your expected net proceeds with the cost of the next home and the expenses of moving. The difference between those two numbers, not the sale price alone, can help you assess whether the move works for you.
A practical seller’s playbook
Get an honest valuation. Ask for the five most relevant recent comparable sales and a review of nearby listings that expired or were withdrawn. A clear view of both sold and unsold competition can help you set realistic expectations.
Calculate your net before listing. Include your mortgage payout, any penalty, legal costs, commission and other selling expenses. Ask your lender how your payout would be calculated. Fixed and variable mortgages can have different penalty calculations, so confirm the details for your specific loan rather than relying on a rule of thumb.
Talk early if a shortfall may be possible. Your lender and a mortgage professional can help you understand the options available for your circumstances. If legal or contractual questions arise, speak with your lawyer.
Compete on the strengths you can control. If a nearby power-of-sale property is listed, compare its condition, location and sale circumstances with yours. You don’t have to match a listing that offers a different product. Presentation, maintenance and clear information can help buyers understand your home’s value. For how distressed sales reset neighbourhood comparables, read our companion piece: A Distressed Sale on Your Street Just Became Your Appraisal.
Make your launch price match your timeline. If you need to move on a firm schedule, price decisively based on current comparable sales. Watch the first two weeks of buyer response and discuss any adjustment promptly if the showings and feedback suggest a mismatch. If your timeline is flexible, decide in advance what you would need to see before changing your plans. Waiting for a particular year is not a strategy unless you know what you’re waiting for.
What buyers should keep in mind
A seller who accepts a price below their previous purchase price may be motivated, but that does not automatically make the property a bargain. Review the home’s condition, title, timing and comparable sales with the right professionals. The study points to stronger negotiating opportunities in the condo segment, but every building and neighbourhood has its own details.
Muskoka and Parry Sound need their own comparables
The Valery study covers GTA resales. Don’t apply its percentages to Muskoka or Parry Sound.
In cottage country, properties can differ widely in waterfront access, road access, seasonality and features. If you’re selling, use recent local sales that genuinely resemble your property. Set expectations for a realistic marketing window, especially in the shoulder seasons.
Your buyer pool may also include people who need to sell a GTA home before purchasing a cottage. That can affect timing and financing coordination. Clear information, realistic pricing and thoughtful planning can make your property easier for buyers to assess.
Start with clarity
TRREB reported 5,603 GTA sales in October 2026, down 7.9% year-over-year, and an average price of $1,024,108, down 2.7% year-over-year. Active listings were down 10%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose 1.2% from September, and the composite Home Price Index edged up 0.1%. These mixed signals are a reminder to focus on current local comparables, not a single headline.
The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on October 28, with its next scheduled decision on December 9. As you plan, remember that rates can affect buyers’ budgets and your own mortgage costs, but they don’t replace a property-specific valuation. Ask your lender or mortgage professional to explain your options and any payout implications.
Percentages are aggregate market statistics from a specific study period and do not describe any individual homeowner’s situation or equity.
If you’re considering a sale, let’s review your home’s current comparables and work through your next steps together. Start with a home valuation. If you’re planning a move, you can also search for properties.
AP Bains | CENTURY 21 Green Realty Inc. Brokerage
416-817-8110
info@apbains.com
www.apbains.com
Sources: Valery Real Estate analysis of 27,271 GTA resales using TRREB MLS data, sales closed October 25, 2025–October 24, 2026; CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Fall 2026; TRREB October 2026 Market Watch; Bank of Canada, October 28, 2026 rate announcement.